𝐒𝐮𝐠𝐚𝐫 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐬: 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐕𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐫𝐚𝐳𝐢𝐥’𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞

globalmexss2020
Sep 14
2 min read

✅São Paulo continues to lead as Brazil’s largest sugarcane producer, accounting for 57,5% of Center-South crushing in 2024/25.

📉However, the severe drought that occurred between October 2023 and August 2024, combined with regional wildfires, negatively impacted the development of sugarcane fields and compromised the quality of the harvested cane. This scenario resulted in a 17,7% drop in exports in April 2025 — approximately 1.56 million tons less compared to the same month of the previous year — marking the lowest monthly volume recorded in the past two years.

📉In the first quarter of 2025, Center-South stocks were about 70% below the historical average, limiting the immediately exportable volume.

Despite these adversities, Brazil is expected to remain the world’s largest sugarcane producer, with a forecast of 671 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025/26, of which 618 MMT are from the Center-South (mainly São Paulo and Minas Gerais) and 53 MMT from the North/Northeast region.

📈For the same period, exports of approximately 35,8 million metric tons of raw sugar are projected, slightly above the volume estimated for 2024/25.

📈Harvested area continues to expand, and by the end of the year, it is expected to reach 8.8 million hectares, representing a 4,1% increase compared to 2024.

The projected production mix for 2025/26 is 51% sugar and 49% ethanol, with sugar favored due to both higher profitability and the high crystallization capacity of Brazilian mills.

📉In April 2025, sugar exports totaled 1,56 million tons, reflecting again a 17,7% decline compared to the same month of the previous year, confirming the lowest monthly volume recorded in the past two years.

📉Revenue from sugar and molasses exports has also declined significantly. In January 2025, the average daily shipped volume was 30% lower than the same period in 2024, reflecting both a drop in international prices and reduced export volumes.

✅Even amid international price volatility — influenced by global stocks, adverse weather conditions, and emerging market demand — Brazil maintains a competitive position against direct rivals such as India and Thailand. This competitiveness is ensured by greater flexibility in the production mix: the high crystallization capacity of national mills allows sugar production to be prioritized during periods of higher profitability, while other players face technical or political constraints that limit such adjustments.

𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬:

Datamar News

USDA – Foreign Agricultural Service

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